India's policy towards Central Asia
The kind of influence,Indian Prime Minister Modi will have on Indian foreign policy,there is no denying that this year has been a turning point.The Prime Minister Modi has infused life into India diplomacy and his foreign trips,especially have helped reinvigorate Brand India.In the last seven months,Modi has been Prime Minister,he has placed a surprisingly significant amount of emphasis on his foreign policy.He has re-focussed India's efforts to South Asia,earned plaudits for India at multilateral forums and hosted several world leaders.Indian Prime Minister Modi yet to catch his foreign policy attention is Central Asia.While this is not surprising as the region has hardly ever been a foreign policy priority,it should not be relegated to incosequence for long.India's application for membership to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,a powerful regional forum,is a step in the right direction but a lot more needs to be done.India lags behind China but all other major players in the region-definitely the US and Russia but also Iran and Turkey.This is despite the fact that India has civilisational ties with central Asia that go back centuries,more recently,New Delhi has also made a conscious effort towards strengthening its presence in that region.The Government of India's official Connect Central Asia policy was unveiled by former minister of state for external affairs E.Ahmad at the India-Central Asia Dialogue in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek in June 2012.More than two year later,the policy remains more aspirational that it is in the actual.A strong presence in central Asia is important for India for two key factors.Energy security and military security.In the first case,India currently receives almost all of its oil and gas from West Asia but given how volatile that region also.It is good idea to look for other suppliers.India's energy demand continue to go rise.New Delhi has no choice but to tap into other sources.In this context,energy-rich and proximate Central Asia is best positioned to become India's next big oil and gas supplier.China faces much the same challenges-growing economy,growing population-except that it seems to have responded better.
China has already made roads into the Central Asian energy market.Beijing's two trillion dollar strong foreign exchange reserves and a ruthlessly efficient Government not encumbered by the demands of democracy,have meant it has consistelty managed to out bid New Delhi in oil deals not just in Central Asia but across the world.India lost to China the world's largest oil find in five decades-the giant Kashagan oilfield in Kazakhstan.In 2012,India's state run ONGV-Videsh had struck a deal with America's Conoco Phillips to buy the latter's 8.4% stake in Kashagan for five billion dollars.The deal fell through in July 2012 when the Kazakh government itself stepped in and informed Conoco Phillip that its own national oil company,KazMunaiGaz,will buy the American company stake for the same amount.But China is only one of India's problems in Central Asia.What has significant limited New Delhi's diplomatic efforts in that region is a stubborn Pakistan which has wholly refused India overland access to Central Asia,through Afghanistan.Ideally this would have been the shortest route for India.That is not to be-one of the big reasons why the ambitious Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-TAPI oil pipeline project,for example,has been a non-starter.Pakistan going to held this TAPI meeting next month.New Delhi has had to look for new routes that bypass Pakistan altogether.Towards that end,the North-South Transportation Corridor which connects India to the Central Asia region through Iran was envisaged as a game-changer.In the meantime,Chinese have aggressively built similar road and rail network deep into the heart of Central Asian region.The Karakoram Highway,which is under constructions in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and stands a direct threat to India's security interests in that region.An extension of this plan,so is the Gwadar port in Pakistan that is being developed as a counter-balance to the Chabahar port in Iran,located less than 200 km away.
This brings India to military-security aspect of India-Central Asia dynamics.As of now,India's military footprint in that region is next to nothing.New Delhi had sought to shore up its prospects by taking over the Ayni air base in Tajikistan which would have given tremendous strategic depth in the region but its plans have most definitely been thwarted by Russia.The big brother in the region,India began renovating the Ayni air base located just outside the Tajik capital of Dushanbe, in 2004 and up until the end of 2010,Indian engineers were still working there.The India-Tajik relationship is as far as India's military presence goes in that region.While there has been one positive indications of improving that footprint,it is unlikely to change significantly in the near future.Not only because China and Pakistan will do all that they can to limit India's presence but also because Russia will probably not go all out to support India.The US is only country which has stated that it would like India to emerge as its regional partner.India remains an important player in its New Silk Road project that hopes to integrate the Afghan economy into that of Central and South Asia.
Place- New Delhi
Date-26th December,2014
ANIL KUMAR UPADHYAYA
